Politics
China’s Rapid Nuclear Expansion Raises Global Concerns

Clear Facts
- The Pentagon report revealed that China has almost tripled its nuclear arsenal since 2020, now boasting over 600 operational nuclear warheads.
- Despite corruption issues within the People’s Liberation Army, China is rapidly modernizing its military, including developing a nuclear triad.
- The Pentagon criticized China’s support for Russia and Iran, as well as its involvement with the Houthi insurgents in Yemen.
The Pentagon’s latest report on military developments in China has raised significant concerns about the rapid expansion of the Chinese nuclear arsenal. Since 2020, China’s stockpile of nuclear warheads has surged from an estimated “low 200s” to over 600 operational warheads, marking a near tripling of its arsenal. This dramatic increase highlights China’s ambitious military modernization efforts, despite ongoing corruption challenges within its ranks.
While China’s nuclear capabilities remain significantly smaller than those of the United States and Russia, which each possess over 5,500 warheads, the Pentagon’s findings place China firmly in third place globally. The report credits China with managing “the fastest nuclear buildup since the Cold War,” as it seeks to diversify its nuclear forces with a range of systems, from low-yield precision strike missiles to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
A senior U.S. defense official explained that China aims to “amass national power to achieve what Xi Jinping has referred to as the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation by 2049.” This involves revising the international order to align with China’s system of governance and national interests.
China’s modernization efforts extend beyond its nuclear arsenal. The Pentagon report notes advancements in conventional ICBMs capable of striking U.S. targets with non-nuclear payloads. These developments are partly a response to perceived asymmetries in the U.S.’s ability to conduct conventional strikes against China.
Michael Chase, Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, Taiwan, and Mongolia, pointed out that China’s nuclear capabilities are now “far more sophisticated” than just four years ago. The People’s Liberation Army Navy has added ballistic missile submarines, and the Air Force has regained a nuclear deterrence role with new nuclear-capable bombers.
However, China’s military progress is not without its challenges. The report highlights persistent corruption within the People’s Liberation Army, with high-ranking officials, including Defense Minister Li Shangfu, caught in anti-corruption purges. This corruption is exacerbated by the billions of dollars funneled into military modernization projects, which are vulnerable to graft.
Additionally, the Pentagon cited the lack of combat experience among PLA officers as a significant hurdle. The PLA’s “Five Incapables” system underscores deficiencies in evaluating situations, understanding superior officers’ intent, making operational decisions, deploying forces, and responding to unexpected developments.
The Pentagon also criticized China for its international alliances, particularly its support for Russia’s war in Ukraine and Iran’s destabilizing activities in the Middle East. Chase was especially critical of China’s backing of the Houthi insurgents in Yemen, who have disrupted global shipping in the Red Sea.
“The Houthis have built a supply chain into the PRC for drones and missiles that they are using to attack international shipping,” Chase stated, emphasizing the systemic nature of these transactions.
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