Politics
Regime’s Downfall Reshapes Middle East Power Dynamics

Clear Facts
- The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria marks a significant strategic loss for both Russia and Iran.
- Russia’s military presence in Syria, crucial for its Middle Eastern strategy, is now at risk due to Assad’s fall.
- Iran’s regional influence, particularly its “Axis of Resistance,” suffers a severe setback with the loss of Assad.
The unexpected downfall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria has sent ripples across the geopolitical landscape, signaling a pivotal shift after over a decade of civil conflict. Assad’s reign, heavily supported by Russia and Iran, has crumbled, leaving these nations grappling with the repercussions. The consequences for Russia and Iran, as well as the broader region, are substantial.
Russia’s involvement in Syria was not solely about supporting Assad. The Khmeimim Air Base and Tartus naval facility were central to Moscow’s strategic ambitions in the Middle East. With Assad’s exit, these assets are now endangered.
Rebekah Koffler, a strategic military intelligence analyst, highlighted the gravity of the situation: “Syria has been a key theater in the broader proxy conflict between Russia and the U.S. losing Assad represents a strategic defeat for Russia, costing them critical bases in the Middle East and further stretching their military resources as they continue fighting in Ukraine.”
Ksenia Svetlova, a senior non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, further elaborated on the implications for Russia.
“Russia has been exposed for what it really is- a power that overpromises but underdelivers. They came to Syria with grand ambitions, but apart from helping Assad survive through joint efforts with Iran and Hezbollah, they achieved little.”
The fall of Assad underscores Syria’s role as a battleground in the U.S.-Russia proxy war. Koffler explained that before Assad’s fall, President Trump had urged Putin to de-escalate tensions. Instead, Putin escalated his nuclear doctrine, refusing to relent.
“Now that Assad, one of Putin’s key allies, has lost Syria, the balance of power shifts dramatically.”
For Iran, Assad’s collapse is a severe blow to its regional strategy. Syria was a vital link in Tehran’s “Axis of Resistance,” connecting Iran to Hezbollah in Lebanon and facilitating arms smuggling across the region.
“This is an unprecedented, historic moment,” Svetlova remarked. “The Iranian ‘Ring of Fire,’ meticulously built by Qassem Soleimani, has been shattered.”
The weakening of Hezbollah during its conflict with Israel further compromised Assad’s regime, leaving it without crucial support. Iran, meanwhile, refrained from deploying additional troops to aid Assad.
An Iranian journalist, speaking anonymously, shared insights on the internal reaction in Iran.
“The majority of Iranians are celebrating Assad’s downfall. For years, Khamenei and the Revolutionary Guard funneled resources into preserving the Axis of Resistance, draining the Iranian people’s wealth.”
The fall of Assad presents both opportunities and challenges for the Middle East. The surprise attack on Assad’s forces by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) highlights the complexity of the situation.
“Who will fill the void?” Koffler cautioned. “The rebels aren’t good people – they’re the same extremists we’ve seen before.”
Avner Golov, former senior director of Israel’s National Security Council, sees potential benefits for the U.S. and Israel.
“The collapse of Assad’s regime underscores the failures of Russia and Iran as powers in the region. Meanwhile, the U.S. has shown its strength by standing with Israel and choosing the winning side.”
Golov also noted the implications for China, which has remained largely absent in Middle Eastern conflicts.
“This presents a unique opportunity for America to strengthen its position in the Middle East amid the collapse of the Iranian axis.”
Let us know what you think, please share your thoughts in the comments below.

Maxx
December 10, 2024 at 10:57 am
Assad’s downfall is the first of several Middle East dictatorship domino that need to follow. The average Iranian should be thrilled and given hope that their Khomenei regime could be the next domino treatened.
dmh
December 10, 2024 at 12:19 pm
That anonymous Iranian journalist who says that most Iranians are glad of Assad’s fall in Syria seems to be hinting that if Khamenei pulls in his horns all across the MENA, Iran’s own economy will be better able to withstand international sanctions and the Iranian people will benefit. It seems to me that US sanctions against Iran are unlikely to be eased, though.
James Johnson
December 16, 2024 at 10:43 pm
God works in mysterious ways.