Harris Faces Uncertain Path in California Race

Clear Facts

• A new poll shows that 41% of California voters would support Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race, compared to 29% for a generic Republican candidate.
• Among independents, 52% are undecided, and only 13% would choose Harris outright, indicating a significant level of apathy.
• Democrats show 49% support for Harris, but 25% remain undecided, highlighting softer personal loyalty compared to the party’s overall dominance in the state.

Kamala Harris, the former Vice President, faces a challenging landscape as she considers a potential run for governor of California in 2026. A recent poll conducted by the University of California, Irvine, reveals that Harris garners 41% support in a hypothetical matchup against a generic Republican candidate, who attracts 29%.

Despite being a well-known figure, Harris has not managed to secure a commanding lead, with 40% of voters still undecided.

Poll director Jon Gould commented on Harris’s position, stating, “It’s interesting to see a candidate who isn’t announced that much farther up on her rivals.” He further noted, “She has a +11 net favorability rating, but she is also much better known than any other candidate.”

However, the poll’s crosstabs reveal a more complex scenario. Among independent voters, a crucial group in California’s primary elections, 52% remain uncertain, and only 13% express outright support for Harris. This indicates a substantial level of apathy towards her candidacy.

Even within her own party, Harris’s support is not as robust as one might expect. While 49% of Democrats back her, a significant 25% are undecided. This suggests that personal loyalty to Harris is not as strong as the Democratic Party’s overall dominance might imply.

Governor Gavin Newsom enjoys a 20% favorability boost following his confrontation with President Donald Trump over the Los Angeles riots, highlighting the challenges Harris faces in securing similar support.

Other potential candidates, such as real estate mogul Rick Caruso and former Democratic California Rep. Katie Porter, remain in the single digits in terms of support. Caruso hovers around 9%, while Porter sits at 6%.

The poll also highlights broader dissatisfaction among California voters, with a two-to-one margin believing the state is “on the wrong track.” Issues like housing, cost of living, and crime take precedence over cultural matters.

Gould summarized the current sentiment, stating, “We’re in a period of disappointment and distrust. No one seems happy with anything.”

As Harris weighs her decision, Democrats are looking to a new policy initiative, “Project 2029,” to regain momentum after her 2024 White House bid, where she trailed Trump by approximately 2.3 million votes. Harris is expected to announce her decision about the gubernatorial race later this summer.

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