Paxton Surges Ahead in Texas Senate Primary Poll

Clear Facts

• Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton leads Sen. John Cornyn by 16 points in a two-way Republican primary poll for the 2026 Texas Senate race.
• In a hypothetical three-way matchup with Rep. Wesley Hunt, Paxton still leads with 44%, followed by Cornyn at 34% and Hunt at 19%.
• The Texas Senate race is rated as “Solid R” by the Cook Political Report, indicating a strong likelihood of remaining in Republican control.

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is making waves in the 2026 Texas Senate race, pulling ahead of sitting Republican Sen. John Cornyn by double digits in a recent poll. According to the survey conducted by the Tarrance Group, Paxton leads Cornyn 56% to 40% in a two-way primary matchup.

The poll also explored a potential three-way race involving Republican Rep. Wesley Hunt, who is reportedly considering a run. In that scenario, Paxton still holds a commanding lead with 44%, while Cornyn trails at 34% and Hunt garners 19%.

Republican leaders have reportedly urged former President Donald Trump to endorse Cornyn. However, Trump has yet to make any official endorsement in the race.

Cornyn’s campaign remains optimistic despite the early polling numbers. Matt Mackowiak, a senior campaign adviser for Cornyn, stated,
“Senator Cornyn has a 99% voting record with Trump as President and continues to be his close legislative ally. In ten months, when Texas GOP primary voters completely understand the record of both candidates, we are confident we will win.”

Chris Gustafson, a campaign spokesperson, echoed that sentiment, arguing that Paxton’s lead may not hold up under scrutiny.
“The numbers don’t lie – John Cornyn is in a far better early position than Ken Paxton. Texans only need one quick look at Paxton’s record before his support plummets.”

The poll also examined how each Republican candidate might fare in a general election against former Democratic Rep. Colin Allred, who is reportedly considering another Senate run. While Cornyn leads Allred by six points and Hunt by four points, Paxton trails Allred by one point. Allred, who lost to Republican Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024 by 8.5 points, is seen as a potential contender for the Democratic Party.

Despite these hypothetical matchups, the Texas Senate race is widely expected to remain in Republican hands. The Cook Political Report has rated the race as “Solid R,” signaling that the GOP holds a strong advantage. However, Democratic strategists believe that an upset could be possible in the event of a significant “blue wave” in 2026.

Paxton’s campaign has not yet commented on the poll results.

As the race heats up, the Republican primary will likely be a key battleground, with Paxton’s early lead setting the stage for what could be a contentious fight for the GOP nomination.

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