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Leaked Documents Suggest Germany Preparing for Conflict



Clear Facts

  • Leaked documents from the German Ministry of Defense suggest that Europe is preparing for a potential expansion of Russia’s war in Ukraine, possibly targeting NATO ally countries in 2022.
  • The documents outline a scenario, termed “Alliance Defense 2025,” where Russia could mobilize an additional 200,000 soldiers by February, followed by a massive “spring offensive” against Ukrainian armed forces.
  • The potential scenario also suggests Russia could start waging war in the Baltics by July, using cyberattacks and stirring up discontent among Russian nationals in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

The leaked documents published in the German newspaper Bild reveal Europe’s preparation for an escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The classified military information, obtained from the German Ministry of Defense, indicates that Germany’s armed forces are bracing for a possible “hybrid” Russian attack in Eastern Europe.

The documents detail several potential scenarios that could unfold in the coming months. One such scenario, named “Alliance Defense 2025,” could commence as early as February with Russia mobilizing an additional 200,000 soldiers. This mobilization could be spurred by a decrease in Western financial support for Ukraine, leading Russia to launch a massive “spring offensive” against Ukrainian armed forces.

The documents further outline how Russia could begin waging war in the Baltics by July. This could involve “severe cyberattacks” and the incitement of discontent among Russian nationals in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. By September, the documents suggest, these clashes could be used by Russia as a pretext to initiate “Zapad 2024,” a large-scale military “exercise” that would amass approximately 50,000 Russian soldiers in the west of the country and Belarus.

The scenario further suggests that Russia could then move troops and mid-range missiles to Kaliningrad, a small Russian territory located between Lithuania and Poland, both NATO members. The documents indicate that Russia could bombard the region with propaganda warning of an imminent attack by NATO forces. The ultimate goal of this would be to conquer the Suwalki Gap, a narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor situated between Belarus and Kaliningrad.

By December, the documents suggest, Russia could exploit the transition period following the US presidential election. It could use propaganda to fabricate “border conflicts” or “riots with numerous deaths” to incite violence in the Suwalki Gap area and create unrest.

In January 2025, following a meeting of the UN Security Council, Russia could falsely accuse Western allies of plotting against Putin’s regime. This could be used as a rallying cry to amass troops in Belarus and the Baltics by March 2025. The leaked document suggests that in this scenario, 30,000 German troops would be deployed for defense, while an estimated 70,000 Russian forces would have gathered in Belarus.

By May 2025, the buildup could prompt NATO to enact “measures for credible deterrence” to prevent further Russian incursion, which could lead to combat between Western troops and Russian forces.

Despite these potential scenarios, Russian officials, including President Putin, have repeatedly denied any plans to escalate the Ukraine conflict beyond the country’s borders. However, the plans obtained by Bild are taken seriously by European allies, who are preparing accordingly.

Last week, NATO invitee Sweden’s Civil Defense Minister Carl-Oskar Bohlin stated at a “People and Defense” conference that war in Sweden was possible. This sentiment was echoed by the country’s military commander-in-chief, Micael Bydén, who said, “We need to prepare as far as possible, at all levels, throughout society.”


German Defense Ministry officials did not comment on the specific scenarios outlined in the document. However, they told Bild: “I can tell you that considering different scenarios, even if they are extremely unlikely, are part of everyday military business, especially in training.”

Clear Thoughts (op-ed)

The leaked war plans from the German Ministry of Defense unveil a chilling narrative. They tell a tale of Europe bracing for a potential Russian expansion of the ongoing war in Ukraine. The documents, with their detailed scenarios and timelines, provide a stark reminder of the precarious state of world affairs we find ourselves in.

“Alliance Defense 2025” predicts a Russian mobilization of an additional 200,000 soldiers by February, setting the stage for a massive spring offensive against the Ukrainian armed forces. It’s a sobering thought, especially considering the decreasing Western financial support for Ukraine.

By July, Russia could be waging war in the Baltics, using cyberattacks and stirring discontent among Russian nationals in Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. This could lead to a large-scale military exercise, “Zapad 2024,” that would amass approximately 50,000 Russian soldiers in the west of the country and Belarus.

The documents suggest a series of escalating events, culminating in Russia accusing Western allies of plotting against Putin’s regime in 2025. This could be the rallying cry for Russia to amass troops in Belarus and the Baltics. A frightening prospect, indeed.

Despite Russian officials denying any plans to escalate the Ukraine conflict, these documents are being taken seriously by European allies. NATO invitee Sweden’s statements last week only underscore the growing concern in Europe.

It’s a stark reminder that we live in an increasingly unstable world, where the threat of conflict is ever-present. It’s a world that demands clear-eyed realism and steadfast resolve from its leaders.

Let us know what you think, please share your thoughts in the comments below.





  1. bubbabird

    January 21, 2024 at 9:23 am

    This sounds to me like fantasyland. When my suspicion bone thus kicks in, I then look for who is pushing this scenario—who benefits from the fear-mongering? Oh, I see: Generals. Certain politicians which are feeding the Ukraine war, The West: Defense contractors in the US and Britain? I am just beginning the speculate on the extent of the Great Money Trail which is unveiling in this storyline.And Putin would do this, then why? It does not seem to be in his immediate benefit.

  2. James F White

    January 21, 2024 at 11:45 am

    No surprise, upper Eschelon military minds are always obsessed with disaster scenario planning but better to be prepared than not. Meanwhile the obvious incompetence and clear weakness of Biden and his presidency does nothing but invite bad behavior on part of USA enemies. If you value US Constitution and traditional USA freedoms and ideals, make sure you vote accordingly. Dont let the socialists take that away from us as they seem hell bent on doing.

  3. Colleen

    January 21, 2024 at 1:00 pm

    History is repeating itself. It seems that nobody on this planet remembers the past, so thus we repeat it. No truer words were ever spoken.

  4. Gregory Duda

    January 21, 2024 at 1:41 pm

    Gregory Duda

  5. Susan Zipadee

    January 21, 2024 at 4:19 pm

    A personal opinion, which I am entitled to. I no longer believe what our US Gov, NATO and the European countries say/spin/spew. Fear mongering. They were ALL part of the BIG lie about Ukraine/Russia. Victoria Nuland and US Neocons might well be dirty rotten scoundrels. Is it rather about pipsqueak Zelenskyy’s shameful sacrifice of his country for starting this war with mammoth Russia, designed to wear Russia down and deplete it’s military, so NATO & the US, which may be behind this war, can just waltz and in seize/take/steal/rape/enslave Russia’s huge natural resources, gold and people? Poke the Bear. It has consequences. Again, my opinion: The Press in this country are the handmaids for what may be the ongoing Liberal Progressive disinformation machine & liars. Don’t believe what the US media is trying to sell, what ‘truth’ is. They think we are ALL stupid and they hate us. Since before Clinton, the real hate speak comes from the Liberal Progressives. I learned Liberals ALWAYS project on other people what they themselves do. They look us right in the eye and lie, lie, lie to us. Liberals = lawless, schemers, connivers, deceivers, destroyers of all that is good, true and beautiful, what made this Country GREAT! Are they part of the Big J6 lie (yes!) and the planned destruction of our once great country (Yes!)? [Not an ‘insurrection’, rather a covert op? Proof: Ray Epps!!! Rather, aren’t BLM, Antifa & the anti-Israel college student mobs the real insurrectionists? YES!] Thanks to Elon Musk, we learned that the Press may have indeed colluded regarding the Covid vax and what may have been subsequent lies, especially against viable non Pharma alternatives. Why? I thank God for Elon Musk! We never would have known. My opinion: Is this all part of an arrogant prideful plan of Liberals and Chuck Schumer (“Today the Nation, tomorrow the World! and his wild eyed mask covered outside YEAAA! scream, I will never forget that image, which has been taken down), to change our protected constitution & government to the global totalitarian Great Reset? Are these people rather anti-American? Again, my opinion. How quickly the US Press continues to forget that it was Hamas that began the war with Israel! People are suffering as a result of Hamas’ actions!!! Israel is entitled and must protect themselves, whatever it takes. Might the ultimate humanitarian and final action be to permanently remove all ‘Palestinian’ and Hamas peoples from Gaza, and relocate them to Iran, if Iran did indeed financed this war in this country? A lawless plan to steal our 2024 election, if there will be one? Shame on the US liberal Press. Are they the real anti-Americans? Neither fair nor balanced. Is it all part of a plan?! You decide. We are in God’s hand. May God have mercy on our souls, fact, not an opinion.

    • Terry

      January 31, 2024 at 11:22 am

      A valid charge against our press! I know they have been lying to us since my service in Vietnam. My belief is that our global media has been working together since at least the Vietnam War, probably sooner. The concept of the Global elites has been around forever. It is merely the old rich verses the poor. President Eisenhower warned us about the military-industrial. His warning is being fulfilled!

  6. Chris Willis

    January 22, 2024 at 12:15 am

    Russia can’t even handle Ukraine so how could they handle more difficult countries?
    Not Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia but Germany or Poland. Just not possible. Could
    easily lead to WW3 (or WW4 depending on how you could – since COVID19 was WW3) Don’t
    think Putin wants to destroy Russia which would happen if he started WW4.

  7. Donella Wood

    January 22, 2024 at 12:51 am

    My concern is this: Russia starts wars (like with Ukraine) and the US rushes in to help with tons of money,
    military equipment & supplies, depleting our resources. How many times have we sent more money and more money.
    Then Russia start another war with another country and the good old US rushes in to help with money and supplies.
    Russia knows we are patsys. How many wars can we “sponsor”? Then after the US is bone dry and we are attacked,
    just what country(S) will rush in to help us? Name one. We borrow money to give away, we buy oil because the numbskull (Obama) in office won’t let us drill when the US could be energy efficient. The 2024 election can’t get
    here soon enough to get Donald J.Trump back in oFfice to try to save our ides. It may be too late now!!!

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