Unusual January Tropical Disturbance Raises Eyebrows

Clear Facts

• Tropical development in January is highly unusual for the Eastern Pacific.
• Current conditions may allow a brief window for possible storm formation near Baja California this weekend.
• No immediate threat to land is expected and forecasts could change.

Meteorologists are turning attention from winter storms to possible tropical activity as irregular conditions appear in the Eastern Pacific.

Normally, tropical regions remain quiet in winter, making any sign of storm formation in January uncommon.

The FOX Forecast Center states that there has never been a recorded tropical formation in January in the Eastern Pacific basin.

The earliest known tropical system in that region was Tropical Depression One-E in April 2020.

A low-pressure zone is projected to develop by Thursday due to minimal wind shear beneath a broad high-pressure ridge over the West Coast.

This combination might provide the instability needed for tropical activity.

The National Weather Service defines wind shear as changes in wind speed or direction at different altitudes.

The FOX Weather Tropical Threat product notes possible development as early as Saturday near western Baja California.

This system is not expected to threaten land soon, or to develop over the next seven days, but updates may emerge.

“TROPICS? IN JANUARY?

It’s at least mildly possible this weekend into early next week in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Mexico.

A vigorous upper level trough may help spin up a surface low over the still warm ocean waters.

Many models show at least a brief window for a…”

— Noah Bergren (@NbergWX) January 14, 2026

The National Hurricane Center identifies a system as a possible tropical cyclone if it could deliver winds of 39 mph or higher to land within 72 hours, even when not yet a tropical depression or storm.

This attention follows the extremely active 2025 Eastern Pacific hurricane season.

The season had 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

The Atlantic basin saw 13 named storms.

That included five hurricanes, four of which reached major status.

Hurricanes Erin and Humberto hit 160 mph winds.

Hurricane Melissa ended the season as a Category 5 storm, producing 185 mph winds in Jamaica.

Remarkably, the United States did not experience a hurricane landfall this past season.

That is an uncommon event in recent history.

The last U.S. hurricane-free season was in 2015.

That was over a decade ago.

Stay with us for updates on this potential January development as traditional weather patterns face rare changes.

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