WHO top scientist cautions that it will take another five years to control coronavirus

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:

• A chief scientist of the WHO estimates that we have to wait at least five more years before COVID-19 will be fully contained.
• The scientist also warns that societies must learn to live with coronavirus, for now, noting focused lockdowns will be needed.
• The WHO clinical expert also dismissed the possibility of developing an antibody as data suggests the rate of people naturally recovering is not enough.

A chief scientist from the World Health Organization (WHO) warns full containment of the coronavirus may at least take another four to five years.  

The WHO’s official, Soumya Swaminathan, announced her grim estimate on Wednesday, cautioning that there are several factors in consideration to know until how long COVID-19 will continue to plague this world.

During a forum with Financial Times, Swaminathan said that if a vaccine will be made available within three to four years, then she projects that the virus will be controlled within four to five years globally.

Swaminathan also noted that a vaccine is most likely the best solution for now, but she also implied that her assessment of its availability is still uncertain, and the outbreak could possibly get worse.

She added that if the virus mutates, as earlier studies indicate it could, the developed vaccine will be useless.

Another speaker from the discussion, Peter Piot, remarked that it is still undetermined whether we can eliminate the coronavirus.

Piot, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s global health, noted that so for smallpox was the only human disease that’s been eradicated.

The expert further advised that humans should learn to live with COVID-19, and suggested lockdowns should focus on specific areas rather than the general population.

And as the United States struggles with its per state basis lockdowns, Swaminathan noted the difficulty right now dealing with the economy and reopening of businesses.

The chief scientist also urged governments to expand its health care system’s capacity so economies can resume safely, adding that prioritized consideration must be given to high-risk areas such as senior homes, large assemblies, public places, churches, and sports events.

Swaminathan also shutdowns optimism in developing indirect herd immunity from COVID-19, which is natural insusceptibility against the infectious disease, saying that the approach means that we agree to take high death rates.

She explained that the method would not work because studies based on worldwide data only indicate natural insusceptibility rates of between 10 and 15 percent, and herd immunity requires at least  90 to 95 percent to develop such.

While individuals that are infected now with the virus might develop antibodies and could be resistant for a while, how long it will last is yet to be studied, Swaminathan added.

Source: New York Post