Coronavirus model predicts US deaths could reach 400,000 by Jan 1 [Video]


  • According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), the COVID-19 death toll could reach three million worldwide by the end of 2020 if governments and people won’t work in curbing the pandemic.
  • Projecting the worst-case scenario, IHME said that fatalities in the US could significantly climb up to 400,000 from the current 188,000 by January 1.
  • During the early stage of the pandemic, the institute was criticized for providing underwhelming figures but was touted by the Trump administration.

According to a research group that the Trump administration previously touted, the COVID-19 death toll would “most likely” reach three million globally by the end of 2020 if governments and the public will not do their part in mitigating the coronavirus pandemic.

Based on the forecast by the University of Washington School of Medicine Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), fatalities in the US could significantly climb up to 400,000 from the current 188,000 by January 1.

Moreover, holistically speaking, the IHME model showed that the US would reach over 620,000 death toll, and worldwide, four million people would lose their lives to the coronavirus as the worst-case scenario.

Meanwhile, for the best-case scenario, COVID-19 fatalities would reach two million globally and fatalities in the US would reach from 257,286 to 327, 775.

IHME Director Dr. Christopher Murray warned: “We are facing the prospect of a deadly December, especially in Europe, Central Asia, and the United States,” adding that “the science is clear and the evidence irrefutable: mask-wearing, social distancing, and limits to social gatherings are vital to helping prevent transmission of the virus.”

Currently, Murray’s research group said that the feasible scenario projects that 2.9 million people would be killed if “individual mask use and other mitigation measures remain unchanged.”

In its release, Murray admitted that their projection represents “a significant increase over the current total deaths, estimated at nearly 910,000 worldwide.” He further explained that the pandemic follows “seasonal patterns similar to pneumonia,” suggesting that nations in the northern hemisphere are likely to get hit anew once the climate becomes colder.

“People in the Northern Hemisphere must be especially vigilant as winter approaches, since the coronavirus, like pneumonia, will be more prevalent in cold climates,” Murray said.

In the IHME projections, India and the US are the nations that are likely to suffer the most deaths.

According to the latest NBC News tracking, the US has the highest coronavirus cases (6.2 million recorded infections) and deaths (188,000).

Based on the monitoring by the John Hopkins University, the US holds almost 25 percent of the world’s 26 million cases and around 20 percent of the total deaths at 870,000 across the globe.

Brazil comes after with 124,614 fatalities, and then India at 68,472.

The IHME drew flak during the early stage of the pandemic for projecting inaccurate, underwhelming figures that President Donald Trump and the White House cited as proof that they were on top of the crisis situation.


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