Mitt Romney says Trump will likely get a second term

WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW:

• Republican Senator Mitt Romney said that he believes President Donald Trump would likely win his presidential reelection bid.
• According to Romney, Trump will win because (1) he’s the incumbent president, (2) he “will tack more towards the middle in his communication,” and (3) voters who are visibly opposed to the president do not necessarily come out to vote.
• Polls do not accurately represent young and minority groups based on various reasons concerning the existing polling methods.

Despite being a staunch critic of President Donald Trump in the legislative, Senator Mitt Romney believes that his fellow GOP candidate would likely be victorious against presumptive Democratic nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, in November elections.

Romney gave three reasons why he thinks that Trump would likely remain in the White House when asked by the HuffPost.

“There are enormous advantages to being the incumbent, number one,” he said on Thursday. “Number two, I think [Trump] will tack more towards the middle in his communication than he has so far.”

“And number three, I think the voters that are most animated in opposition to the president tend not to come out to vote ― and that’s young people and the minorities. They’re active in polls, but not necessarily active at actually getting out to the polls,” Romney continued.

Based on various reasons, current polling methods do not precisely represent the young and minority voter groups. One example is that, for racial minorities, English is not their mother tongue while the young adults normally don’t reach a readable base in phone surveys. Pollsters then would apply sampling weights to project and generalize the population coming from the electorate makeup assumptions. They have attempted to take out the sampling skews given those assumptions.

Romney may or may not be correct about his November election forecast. Back in 2012, he lost his presidential bid to Barack Obama due to unforeseen high voting productivity from minorities and young people. Later, he pointed his defeat to Obama’s administration’s “gift-giving” to key voting blocs which include African Americans, Hispanics, and young women.

Having much lead from their internal polling, Romney’s camp was in total shock when they lost the 2012 presidential election. Romney reportedly did not even prepare a concession speech.

According to Neil Newhouse, Romney’s campaign pollster, they did not anticipate the voter turnout would come from much younger and less white Americans, particularly throughout the Sun Belt states.

“The Colorado Latino vote was extraordinarily challenging… As it was in Florida,” Newhouse said back then.

Meanwhile, Biden has projected rising support among older voters who are historically known for voting for presidential candidates from the GOP.

Source: AOL.com