Ranked-Choice Voting Shakes Up New York Mayoral Race

Clear Facts

• Zohran Mamdani, a socialist, is leading Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary due to ranked-choice voting.
• In the ranked-choice voting simulation, Mamdani received 52% of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 48%.
• Cuomo initially led with 35% in raw votes, followed by Mamdani with 32%.

The political landscape in New York City is experiencing a shake-up as Zohran Mamdani, a socialist and Democratic Assemblyman, gains momentum in the city’s Democratic mayoral primary. This shift is largely attributed to the ranked-choice voting system, which appears to favor Mamdani over former Governor Andrew Cuomo.

On Tuesday, New York City will hold its mayoral primary elections using this unique voting method. A recent poll indicates that in a simulated eighth round of ranked-choice voting, Mamdani surpasses Cuomo, securing 52% of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 48%.

In terms of raw vote totals, Cuomo initially leads with 35% support, closely followed by Mamdani at 32%. Other candidates, such as New York City Comptroller Brad Lander and City Council Speaker Adrienne Adams, trail behind with 13% and 8%, respectively. Notably, 4% of voters remain undecided.

Spencer Kimball, a polling expert, noted the significant shift in support for Mamdani, stating, “Over five months, Mamdani’s support has surged from 1% to 32%, while Cuomo finishes near where he began.”

Mamdani’s campaign, once considered a longshot, has seen a remarkable rise in recent weeks. A previous poll in May showed Cuomo leading Mamdani by a margin of 35% to 23%, highlighting the dramatic change in voter sentiment.

Despite Cuomo’s tarnished reputation, he has managed to secure endorsements from influential figures such as Democratic South Carolina Rep. James Clyburn, former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg, and former President Bill Clinton. However, some criticism has been directed at Mamdani, labeling him “a democratic socialist who too often ignores the unavoidable trade-offs of governance,” while acknowledging Cuomo’s strong policy record and impressive endorsements.

The survey was conducted with a sample size of 833 likely voters and early voters, with a margin of error of +/-3.3%. The ranked-choice voting simulation included 800 participants in the first round and 729 in the final round, with respective margins of error of +/-3.4% and +/-3.6%.

Both Mamdani’s and Cuomo’s campaigns have yet to respond to requests for comment regarding these developments.

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